Charles Oliveira Says There's Only One Way Arman Tsarukyan Beats Ilia Topuria, and He Should Know

Reviewed by BJJ Gyms · Updated 2026-07-27

A Prediction Rooted in Personal Experience

When Charles Oliveira talks about how to beat Ilia Topuria, it carries extra weight because he has already tried and failed to do it himself. Their fight last year ended in a TKO loss for Oliveira, and in looking back at it he has been candid that he stayed in striking exchanges longer than he probably should have, given that trading punches with Topuria is exactly the fight Topuria wants.

That kind of self-aware breakdown from a former champion is more useful than the usual pre-fight prediction, because it is coming from someone who felt Topuria's power firsthand and has had time to sit with what went wrong. His advice for Tsarukyan is essentially a corrected version of his own gameplan.

Why Tsarukyan's Style Matches the Theory

Oliveira's case for Tsarukyan rests on watching what Tsarukyan has actually been doing in his recent fights, which is pursuing takedowns early and often rather than looking for a striking exchange he does not need to win. His win over Oliveira came by decision built largely around control time, and his finish of Dan Hooker came from a second round arm-triangle choke, both fights where the wrestling and top position did the heavy lifting rather than the hands.

That pattern lines up cleanly with Oliveira's read on Topuria's game, that the danger drops considerably once a fight leaves the feet. Whether that holds up against a fighter with Topuria's full skill set is untested at this level, but the blueprint Oliveira is describing is at least grounded in fights that already happened rather than pure speculation.

Oliveira's Own Title Case Is Still Alive Too

Separately, Oliveira has been publicly pushing for a shot at current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, going as far as flooding recent UFC press conference comments calling for the matchup by name. The two have fought once before, back in 2022, when Oliveira got the finish by submission in the first round, a detail he has not been shy about bringing up while making his case.

That history gives Oliveira a legitimate argument of his own, separate from whatever happens between Tsarukyan and Topuria. A lightweight division with this many live storylines, a champion, a top contender coming off his first loss, and a former champion angling for a rematch, is about as stacked as the sport gets right now.

The Grappling Lesson Underneath the Prediction

Strip away the matchmaking talk and what Oliveira is really describing is one of the oldest truths in combat sports: even the best strikers usually have real gaps once a fight hits the mat, and finding those gaps is a specific skill that has to be trained on purpose. Oliveira built an entire Hall of Fame caliber career on exactly that idea, and his read here is basically him pointing at the same tool for someone else to use.

That is a useful frame for anyone training jiu-jitsu with no interest in ever fighting professionally. Learning to control a bigger or harder-hitting training partner on the ground is the same underlying skill Oliveira is describing at the sport's highest level, just applied at a completely different scale. Find a BJJ gym near you and ask about live positional rounds against larger partners if you want a taste of what that actually feels like.

5 Reasons Oliveira's Take on This Matchup Holds Up

Here is why a former champion's grappling-first prediction is worth more than the average pre-fight hot take.

1. He has actually been in the fight he's describing: Oliveira lost to Topuria himself, which gives his read on where the danger lives more credibility than an outside analyst's guess.
2. Tsarukyan's recent tape backs the theory: A control-heavy decision win and a submission finish over two very different opponents both point toward the same strategic pattern.
3. It matches a broader trend in the division: Several of the sport's toughest strikers have shown more vulnerability on the ground than in the pocket, a pattern good coaches drill for specifically.
4. Oliveira is admitting his own mistake, not just praising someone else: Saying he trusted his boxing too much against Topuria is a more honest, useful breakdown than a simple prediction would be.
5. It keeps multiple lightweight storylines alive at once: Oliveira's own Gaethje campaign and the Tsarukyan-Topuria question can both play out without one canceling the other.

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